ASX
ASE Technology Holding Co., LtdOpen46.86−0.67 −1.41%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
45.85
Prev close
47.53
Day range
45.0347.33
52-week range
11.2147.93
Volume
1.63M0.22×
Mkt cap
103.04B
P/E ttm
55.79
Fwd P/E
21.84
EPS ttm
0.8400
Div yield
0.88%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−2.23%
ASX market-implied price distribution
ASX Price at Expiry
17 OTM quotes · ATM IV 60.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 46.85
Expected price
47.01
forward 46.89
68% range
39–55
−17.4% / +17.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 32.15 | −31.4% |
| 16% | 38.69 | −17.4% |
| 25% | 41.24 | −12.0% |
| 50% (median) | 46.36 | −1.0% |
| 75% | 51.98 | +10.9% |
| 84% | 55.24 | +17.9% |
| 95% | 65.98 | +40.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (49.19) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (51.54) | 27% |
| Down 5% or more (44.51) | 40% |
| Down 10% or more (42.17) | 29% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 29%, 0.9× the 33% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.