ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.Open47.10−4.36 −8.47%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 15m delay
Open
48.39
Prev close
51.46
Day range
46.2448.82
52-week range
46.24133.86
Volume
20.46M1.56×
Mkt cap
18.33B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-36.61
EPS ttm
-2.13
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 10, 2026
From 52w high
−64.81%
ASTS market-implied price distribution
ASTS Price at Expiry
31 OTM quotes · ATM IV 85.8%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 47.10
Expected price
47.91
forward 47.67
68% range
36–59
−23.5% / +25.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 30.61 | −35.0% |
| 16% | 36.04 | −23.5% |
| 25% | 39.06 | −17.1% |
| 50% (median) | 46.14 | −2.0% |
| 75% | 54.27 | +15.2% |
| 84% | 58.93 | +25.1% |
| 95% | 71.53 | +51.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (49.46) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (51.81) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (44.75) | 45% |
| Down 10% or more (42.39) | 36% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 36%, 1.0× the 37% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.