ASTH
Astrana Health Inc.Open38.30−0.10 −0.26%USD
NasdaqCM · as of Oct 13, 11:19 ET · 15m delay
Open
39.00
Prev close
38.40
Day range
37.4239.87
52-week range
18.0851.60
Volume
58.90K0.13×
Mkt cap
1.90B
P/E ttm
46.14
Fwd P/E
10.53
EPS ttm
0.8300
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−25.78%
ASTH market-implied price distribution
ASTH Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 74.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
38%
spot 38.30
Expected price
37.39
forward 37.42
68% range
28–44
−28.0% / +16.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 13.65 | −64.4% |
| 16% | 27.56 | −28.0% |
| 25% | 31.58 | −17.6% |
| 50% (median) | 36.30 | −5.2% |
| 75% | 41.02 | +7.1% |
| 84% | 44.48 | +16.1% |
| 95% | 67.93 | +77.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (40.21) | 28% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (42.13) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (36.39) | 51% |
| Down 10% or more (34.47) | 39% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 39%, 0.9× the 41% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.