ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors, InOpen54.06+0.26 +0.49%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 12:42 ET · 15m delay
Open
54.53
Prev close
53.79
Day range
53.9755.36
52-week range
41.2962.45
Volume
375.09K0.22×
Mkt cap
3.33B
P/E ttm
9.07
Fwd P/E
7.66
EPS ttm
5.96
Div yield
1.12%
Earnings
Sep 9, 2026
From 52w high
−13.44%
ASO market-implied price distribution
ASO Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 37.9%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 54.06
Expected price
53.49
forward 54.24
68% range
48–60
−11.3% / +10.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 39.78 | −26.4% |
| 16% | 47.95 | −11.3% |
| 25% | 50.17 | −7.2% |
| 50% (median) | 53.64 | −0.8% |
| 75% | 57.53 | +6.4% |
| 84% | 59.88 | +10.8% |
| 95% | 64.84 | +20.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (56.76) | 28% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (59.46) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (51.35) | 32% |
| Down 10% or more (48.65) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 1.0× the 18% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.