ASND
Ascendis Pharma A/SOpen223.06−3.94 −1.74%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 13:44 ET · 15m delay
Open
225.99
Prev close
227.00
Day range
222.69228.91
52-week range
186.05282.15
Volume
288.65K0.43×
Mkt cap
14.68B
P/E ttm
17.09
Fwd P/E
20.71
EPS ttm
13.05
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
—
From 52w high
−20.94%
ASND market-implied price distribution
ASND Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 47.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 223.06
Expected price
225.87
forward 225.30
68% range
193–257
−13.5% / +15.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 172.47 | −22.7% |
| 16% | 192.85 | −13.5% |
| 25% | 201.98 | −9.5% |
| 50% (median) | 221.84 | −0.5% |
| 75% | 244.46 | +9.6% |
| 84% | 257.11 | +15.3% |
| 95% | 291.01 | +30.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (234.21) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (245.37) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (211.91) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (200.75) | 24% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 24%, 0.9× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.