ASML
ASML Holding N.V. - New York RePre-market1,750.24−30.10 −1.69%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 1,742.44 −0.45%
Open
1,784.81
Prev close
1,780.34
Day range
1,750.021,784.81
52-week range
946.111,999.96
Volume
1.10M0.74×
Mkt cap
672.27B
P/E ttm
55.85
Fwd P/E
30.06
EPS ttm
31.34
Div yield
0.52%
Earnings
Oct 14, 2026
From 52w high
−12.49%
ASML market-implied price distribution
ASML Price at Expiry
95 OTM quotes · ATM IV 45.8%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
64%
spot 1,750.24
Expected price
1,832.83
forward 1,833.87
68% range
1,583–2,083
−9.6% / +19.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 1,403.30 | −19.8% |
| 16% | 1,582.93 | −9.6% |
| 25% | 1,667.05 | −4.8% |
| 50% (median) | 1,838.53 | +5.0% |
| 75% | 2,005.17 | +14.6% |
| 84% | 2,083.48 | +19.0% |
| 95% | 2,243.07 | +28.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (1,837.75) | 50% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (1,925.26) | 36% |
| Down 5% or more (1,662.73) | 24% |
| Down 10% or more (1,575.22) | 15% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 15%, 1.1× the 14% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.