ASMG
Leverage Shares 2X Long ASML DaClosed41.31−3.28 −7.36%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 40.68 −1.51%
Open
42.05
Prev close
44.59
Day range
40.8745.04
52-week range
20.1765.82
Volume
142.19K3.01×
Div yield
5.09%
From 52w high
−37.24%
ASMG market-implied price distribution
ASMG Price at Expiry
26 OTM quotes · ATM IV 79.1%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 41.31
Expected price
41.64
forward 41.58
68% range
31–51
−24.2% / +23.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 19.78 | −52.1% |
| 16% | 31.32 | −24.2% |
| 25% | 34.43 | −16.6% |
| 50% (median) | 40.37 | −2.3% |
| 75% | 46.96 | +13.7% |
| 84% | 50.94 | +23.3% |
| 95% | 66.12 | +60.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (43.37) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (45.44) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (39.24) | 45% |
| Down 10% or more (37.17) | 36% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 36%, 1.0× the 37% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.