ARYN.SW
ARYZTA NClosedARYN.SW discounted cash flow valuation
ARYN.SW Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -9.7% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 1.7% in this model.
Model: 1.7% from analyst next-year revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.19% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CHF 1.13B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (66% of EV) | CHF 2.24B |
| Enterprise value | CHF 3.38B |
| + Cash & investments | CHF 69.21M |
| − Total debt | −CHF 803.56M |
| Equity value | CHF 2.64B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 24.82M |
| Value per share | CHF 106.43 |
| Market cap | CHF 938.37M |
EUR statements converted at 0.9303 CHF.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (adjusted toward 1) | 0.67 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.50% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.18% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.66% |
| Tax rate | 19.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 46.1% |
| WACC | 7.19% |
Beta is Yahoo's, held between 0.5 and 2.5, then moved a third of the way toward 1. Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%. WACC is at least the risk-free rate plus 2%, which applies here.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.19% | 158.22 | 187.21 | 229.43 | 296.63 | 420.28 |
| 6.19% | 113.47 | 128.68 | 148.66 | 176.06 | 215.96 |
| 7.19% | 85.97 | 95.11 | 106.43 | 120.81 | 139.71 |
| 8.19% | 67.34 | 73.33 | 80.46 | 89.11 | 99.82 |
| 9.19% | 53.90 | 58.05 | 62.87 | 68.53 | 75.28 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2025) | — | CHF 148.56M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.7% | CHF 151.09M | 0.933 | CHF 140.95M |
| Year 2 | 1.7% | CHF 153.66M | 0.870 | CHF 133.73M |
| Year 3 | 1.7% | CHF 156.27M | 0.812 | CHF 126.88M |
| Year 4 | 1.7% | CHF 158.93M | 0.758 | CHF 120.39M |
| Year 5 | 1.7% | CHF 161.63M | 0.707 | CHF 114.22M |
| Year 6 | 2.0% | CHF 164.79M | 0.659 | CHF 108.65M |
| Year 7 | 2.2% | CHF 168.45M | 0.615 | CHF 103.61M |
| Year 8 | 2.5% | CHF 172.63M | 0.574 | CHF 99.06M |
| Year 9 | 2.7% | CHF 177.36M | 0.535 | CHF 94.94M |
| Year 10 | 3.0% | CHF 182.68M | 0.499 | CHF 91.23M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else next year's revenue growth (steadier than one year's EPS), else next year's EPS growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −2% and 25%. Terminal growth defaults to 3%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.