ARW
Arrow Electronics, Inc.After hours231.75+6.03 +2.67%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 231.75 −0.03%
Open
222.50
Prev close
225.72
Day range
221.50233.05
52-week range
101.79249.43
Volume
663.27K1.20×
Mkt cap
11.80B
P/E ttm
14.82
Fwd P/E
9.69
EPS ttm
15.64
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−7.09%
ARW market-implied price distribution
ARW Price at Expiry
17 OTM quotes · ATM IV 47.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 231.75
Expected price
232.65
forward 233.03
68% range
197–267
−15.1% / +15.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 167.78 | −27.6% |
| 16% | 196.87 | −15.1% |
| 25% | 208.61 | −10.0% |
| 50% (median) | 230.98 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 254.03 | +9.6% |
| 84% | 266.52 | +15.0% |
| 95% | 301.14 | +29.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (243.34) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (254.93) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (220.16) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (208.58) | 25% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 1.0× the 26% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.