ARQQ
Arqit Quantum Inc.After hours16.84+0.18 +1.11%USD
NasdaqCM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 16.86 +0.12%
Open
16.47
Prev close
16.66
Day range
16.2117.19
52-week range
11.5261.11
Volume
231.80K0.70×
Mkt cap
293.06M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-15.89
EPS ttm
-3.21
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
—
From 52w high
−72.44%
ARQQ market-implied price distribution
ARQQ Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 96.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
41%
spot 16.84
Expected price
16.96
forward 16.71
68% range
12–21
−30.6% / +26.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.67 | −48.5% |
| 16% | 11.69 | −30.6% |
| 25% | 13.05 | −22.5% |
| 50% (median) | 15.82 | −6.1% |
| 75% | 19.14 | +13.7% |
| 84% | 21.31 | +26.5% |
| 95% | 30.85 | +83.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (17.68) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (18.52) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (16.00) | 52% |
| Down 10% or more (15.16) | 44% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 44%, 1.0× the 44% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.