ARM
Arm Holdings plcPre-market255.24−11.04 −4.15%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 250.02 −2.05%
Open
260.65
Prev close
266.28
Day range
253.34263.12
52-week range
100.02452.70
Volume
3.58M0.69×
Mkt cap
272.60B
P/E ttm
252.71
Fwd P/E
83.34
EPS ttm
1.01
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 4, 2026
From 52w high
−43.62%
ARM market-implied price distribution
ARM Price at Expiry
51 OTM quotes · ATM IV 68.6%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
42%
spot 255.24
Expected price
258.67
forward 255.69
68% range
205–305
−19.5% / +19.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 182.25 | −28.6% |
| 16% | 205.36 | −19.5% |
| 25% | 217.26 | −14.9% |
| 50% (median) | 245.49 | −3.8% |
| 75% | 282.13 | +10.5% |
| 84% | 305.27 | +19.6% |
| 95% | 383.50 | +50.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (268.00) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (280.76) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (242.48) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (229.72) | 36% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 36%, 1.1× the 33% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.