ARG.NZ
Argosy Property Limited OrdinarClosedARG.NZ discounted cash flow valuation
ARG.NZ Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 29.1% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 3.1% in this model.
Model: 3.1% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 6.20% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | NZD 119.33M |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (70% of EV) | NZD 284.31M |
| Enterprise value | NZD 403.64M |
| + Cash & investments | NZD 3.39M |
| − Total debt | −NZD 906.08M |
| Equity value | −NZD 499.05M |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 873.97M |
| Value per share | NZD -0.5710 |
| Market cap | NZD 873.97M |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 9.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 50.9% |
| WACC | 6.20% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.20% | -0.3643 | -0.2334 | -0.0255 | 0.3556 | 1.28 |
| 5.20% | -0.5464 | -0.4843 | -0.3993 | -0.2757 | -0.0793 |
| 6.20% | -0.6509 | -0.6157 | -0.5710 | -0.5124 | -0.4321 |
| 7.20% | -0.7187 | -0.6965 | -0.6696 | -0.6364 | -0.5941 |
| 8.20% | -0.7662 | -0.7512 | -0.7336 | -0.7127 | -0.6872 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2026) | — | NZD 14.04M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.1% | NZD 14.48M | 0.942 | NZD 13.64M |
| Year 2 | 3.1% | NZD 14.93M | 0.887 | NZD 13.24M |
| Year 3 | 3.1% | NZD 15.39M | 0.835 | NZD 12.85M |
| Year 4 | 3.1% | NZD 15.87M | 0.786 | NZD 12.48M |
| Year 5 | 3.1% | NZD 16.36M | 0.740 | NZD 12.11M |
| Year 6 | 3.0% | NZD 16.85M | 0.697 | NZD 11.74M |
| Year 7 | 2.9% | NZD 17.33M | 0.656 | NZD 11.37M |
| Year 8 | 2.7% | NZD 17.81M | 0.618 | NZD 11.00M |
| Year 9 | 2.6% | NZD 18.27M | 0.582 | NZD 10.63M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | NZD 18.73M | 0.548 | NZD 10.26M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.