AR
Antero Resources CorporationOpen37.15+0.59 +1.61%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 12:41 ET · 20m delay
Open
36.86
Prev close
36.56
Day range
36.7437.39
52-week range
29.1045.75
Volume
781.45K0.19×
Mkt cap
11.42B
P/E ttm
10.68
Fwd P/E
8.47
EPS ttm
3.48
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Jul 29, 2026
From 52w high
−18.80%
AR market-implied price distribution
AR Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 39.5%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 37.15
Expected price
37.10
forward 37.28
68% range
33–42
−11.0% / +11.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 28.72 | −22.7% |
| 16% | 33.05 | −11.0% |
| 25% | 34.51 | −7.1% |
| 50% (median) | 37.01 | −0.4% |
| 75% | 39.68 | +6.8% |
| 84% | 41.51 | +11.7% |
| 95% | 45.14 | +21.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (39.01) | 30% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (40.87) | 18% |
| Down 5% or more (35.29) | 32% |
| Down 10% or more (33.44) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 1.0× the 19% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.