APX.AX
APPEN FPO [APX]ClosedAPX.AX discounted cash flow valuation
APX.AX Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 20.4% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 25.0% in this model.
Model: 25.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 13.32% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | AUD 137.06M |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (48% of EV) | AUD 127.74M |
| Enterprise value | AUD 264.80M |
| + Cash & investments | AUD 63.76M |
| − Total debt | −AUD 10.59M |
| Equity value | AUD 317.97M |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 268.52M |
| Value per share | AUD 1.18 |
| Market cap | AUD 264.50M |
USD statements converted at 1.426 AUD.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 1.70 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 13.71% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 30.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 3.9% |
| WACC | 13.32% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.32% | 1.36 | 1.41 | 1.46 | 1.52 | 1.59 |
| 12.32% | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.31 | 1.35 | 1.40 |
| 13.32% | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.18 | 1.22 | 1.26 |
| 14.32% | 1.03 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.11 | 1.14 |
| 15.32% | 0.9578 | 0.9765 | 0.9966 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2025) | — | AUD 9.03M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.0% | AUD 11.28M | 0.882 | AUD 9.96M |
| Year 2 | 25.0% | AUD 14.10M | 0.779 | AUD 10.98M |
| Year 3 | 25.0% | AUD 17.63M | 0.687 | AUD 12.12M |
| Year 4 | 25.0% | AUD 22.04M | 0.606 | AUD 13.36M |
| Year 5 | 25.0% | AUD 27.55M | 0.535 | AUD 14.74M |
| Year 6 | 20.5% | AUD 33.19M | 0.472 | AUD 15.68M |
| Year 7 | 16.0% | AUD 38.50M | 0.417 | AUD 16.05M |
| Year 8 | 11.5% | AUD 42.93M | 0.368 | AUD 15.79M |
| Year 9 | 7.0% | AUD 45.94M | 0.325 | AUD 14.91M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | AUD 47.09M | 0.286 | AUD 13.48M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.