APPF
AppFolio, Inc.Open202.10+3.09 +1.55%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 15m delay
Open
198.63
Prev close
199.01
Day range
198.63203.02
52-week range
142.56265.02
Volume
46.99K0.13×
Mkt cap
7.16B
P/E ttm
46.04
Fwd P/E
24.00
EPS ttm
4.39
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 22, 2026
From 52w high
−23.74%
APPF market-implied price distribution
APPF Price at Expiry
21 OTM quotes · ATM IV 59.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 202.15
Expected price
201.99
forward 202.61
68% range
162–237
−19.6% / +17.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 132.29 | −34.6% |
| 16% | 162.45 | −19.6% |
| 25% | 175.85 | −13.0% |
| 50% (median) | 199.98 | −1.1% |
| 75% | 224.29 | +11.0% |
| 84% | 237.50 | +17.5% |
| 95% | 274.96 | +36.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (212.26) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (222.37) | 27% |
| Down 5% or more (192.04) | 41% |
| Down 10% or more (181.94) | 30% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 30%, 1.0× the 32% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.