APOG
Apogee Enterprises, Inc.Pre-market40.94+0.35 +0.86%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
40.66
Prev close
40.59
Day range
40.0041.35
52-week range
30.7550.88
Volume
342.51K1.38×
Mkt cap
855.47M
P/E ttm
12.96
Fwd P/E
10.36
EPS ttm
3.16
Div yield
2.64%
Earnings
Oct 6, 2026
From 52w high
−19.54%
APOG market-implied price distribution
APOG Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 37.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
40%
spot 40.94
Expected price
40.62
forward 40.05
68% range
36–44
−11.8% / +8.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 30.94 | −24.4% |
| 16% | 36.12 | −11.8% |
| 25% | 37.54 | −8.3% |
| 50% (median) | 40.04 | −2.2% |
| 75% | 42.73 | +4.4% |
| 84% | 44.49 | +8.7% |
| 95% | 56.19 | +37.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (42.99) | 23% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (45.03) | 14% |
| Down 5% or more (38.89) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (36.85) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 0.8× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.