APLD
Applied Digital CorporationOpen21.93−1.33 −5.70%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 10:19 ET · 15m delay
Open
22.11
Prev close
23.25
Day range
21.4422.27
52-week range
19.0150.73
Volume
9.59M0.51×
Mkt cap
6.63B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-27.95
EPS ttm
-1.62
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 7, 2026
From 52w high
−56.78%
APLD market-implied price distribution
APLD Price at Expiry
21 OTM quotes · ATM IV 72.1%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
42%
spot 21.98
Expected price
21.79
forward 21.69
68% range
17–26
−21.4% / +18.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 14.74 | −33.0% |
| 16% | 17.27 | −21.4% |
| 25% | 18.44 | −16.1% |
| 50% (median) | 21.08 | −4.1% |
| 75% | 24.23 | +10.2% |
| 84% | 26.05 | +18.5% |
| 95% | 31.12 | +41.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (23.08) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (24.18) | 25% |
| Down 5% or more (20.88) | 48% |
| Down 10% or more (19.78) | 37% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 37%, 1.0× the 37% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.