APH
Amphenol CorporationPre-market86.19−1.05 −1.20%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 85.44 −0.88%
Open
86.93
Prev close
87.24
Day range
85.7087.08
52-week range
59.0189.93
Volume
9.55M0.78×
Mkt cap
212.54B
P/E ttm
43.09
Fwd P/E
25.88
EPS ttm
2.00
Div yield
0.58%
Earnings
Oct 28, 2026
From 52w high
−4.16%
APH market-implied price distribution
APH Price at Expiry
38 OTM quotes · ATM IV 44.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 86.19
Expected price
85.18
forward 86.54
68% range
74–87
−14.4% / +0.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 71.20 | −17.4% |
| 16% | 73.78 | −14.4% |
| 25% | 78.71 | −8.7% |
| 50% (median) | 86.62 | +0.5% |
| 75% | 86.89 | +0.8% |
| 84% | 86.96 | +0.9% |
| 95% | 87.11 | +1.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (90.50) | 3.6% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (94.81) | 3.4% |
| Down 5% or more (81.88) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (77.57) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 0.9× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.