APEI
American Public Education, Inc.Open48.40+0.25 +0.52%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 15:33 ET · 15m delay
Open
48.50
Prev close
48.15
Day range
48.2449.15
52-week range
30.2061.59
Volume
139.40K0.47×
Mkt cap
885.79M
P/E ttm
19.52
Fwd P/E
12.87
EPS ttm
2.48
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 10, 2026
From 52w high
−21.42%
APEI market-implied price distribution
APEI Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 66.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 48.40
Expected price
48.42
forward 48.60
68% range
38–59
−21.4% / +20.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 31.65 | −34.6% |
| 16% | 38.03 | −21.4% |
| 25% | 41.29 | −14.7% |
| 50% (median) | 48.04 | −0.7% |
| 75% | 55.03 | +13.7% |
| 84% | 58.54 | +20.9% |
| 95% | 66.39 | +37.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (50.82) | 39% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (53.24) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (45.98) | 42% |
| Down 10% or more (43.56) | 33% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 33%, 1.0× the 34% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.