APD
Air Products and Chemicals, IncPre-market283.87+2.61 +0.93%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 285.11 +0.44%
Open
281.00
Prev close
281.26
Day range
279.90285.81
52-week range
229.11314.87
Volume
585.47K0.55×
Mkt cap
63.21B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
19.64
EPS ttm
-0.2100
Div yield
2.55%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−9.85%
APD market-implied price distribution
APD Price at Expiry
13 OTM quotes · ATM IV 27.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 283.87
Expected price
282.24
forward 282.36
68% range
257–307
−9.4% / +8.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 233.17 | −17.9% |
| 16% | 257.18 | −9.4% |
| 25% | 265.59 | −6.4% |
| 50% (median) | 281.58 | −0.8% |
| 75% | 298.11 | +5.0% |
| 84% | 307.20 | +8.2% |
| 95% | 334.57 | +17.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (298.06) | 25% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (312.26) | 12% |
| Down 5% or more (269.68) | 31% |
| Down 10% or more (255.48) | 15% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 15%, 1.1× the 14% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.