APA.AX
APA GROUP STAPLED [APA]ClosedAPA.AX discounted cash flow valuation
APA.AX Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 14.9% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 7.2% in this model.
Model: 7.2% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 5.72% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | AUD 4.26B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (75% of EV) | AUD 13.02B |
| Enterprise value | AUD 17.28B |
| + Cash & investments | AUD 1.65B |
| − Total debt | −AUD 14.19B |
| Equity value | AUD 4.74B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 1.33B |
| Value per share | AUD 3.56 |
| Market cap | AUD 14.67B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 30.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 49.2% |
| WACC | 5.72% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.72% | 10.62 | 15.85 | 25.37 | 48.09 | — |
| 4.72% | 4.27 | 6.43 | 9.55 | 14.48 | 23.46 |
| 5.72% | 0.9379 | 2.07 | 3.56 | 5.59 | 8.54 |
| 6.72% | -1.12 | -0.4326 | 0.4125 | 1.48 | 2.89 |
| 7.72% | -2.51 | -2.06 | -1.53 | -0.8790 | -0.0800 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2026) | — | AUD 407.00M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 7.2% | AUD 436.30M | 0.946 | AUD 412.70M |
| Year 2 | 7.2% | AUD 467.72M | 0.895 | AUD 418.48M |
| Year 3 | 7.2% | AUD 501.39M | 0.846 | AUD 424.33M |
| Year 4 | 7.2% | AUD 537.49M | 0.801 | AUD 430.27M |
| Year 5 | 7.2% | AUD 576.19M | 0.757 | AUD 436.30M |
| Year 6 | 6.3% | AUD 612.26M | 0.716 | AUD 438.53M |
| Year 7 | 5.3% | AUD 644.84M | 0.677 | AUD 436.87M |
| Year 8 | 4.4% | AUD 673.08M | 0.641 | AUD 431.33M |
| Year 9 | 3.4% | AUD 696.23M | 0.606 | AUD 422.03M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | AUD 713.64M | 0.573 | AUD 409.17M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.