AOSL
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor LAfter hours25.86−0.72 −2.71%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 25.86 0.00%
Open
26.14
Prev close
26.58
Day range
25.5226.39
52-week range
17.0154.34
Volume
410.08K0.70×
Mkt cap
783.69M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
82.10
EPS ttm
-1.41
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 12, 2026
From 52w high
−52.41%
AOSL market-implied price distribution
AOSL Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 84.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 25.86
Expected price
26.33
forward 26.09
68% range
19–33
−25.0% / +25.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 15.30 | −40.8% |
| 16% | 19.39 | −25.0% |
| 25% | 21.31 | −17.6% |
| 50% (median) | 25.14 | −2.8% |
| 75% | 29.64 | +14.6% |
| 84% | 32.51 | +25.7% |
| 95% | 42.63 | +64.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (27.15) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (28.45) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (24.57) | 46% |
| Down 10% or more (23.27) | 37% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 37%, 1.0× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.