AOS
A.O. Smith CorporationPre-market56.60+0.22 +0.39%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
55.88
Prev close
56.38
Day range
55.9157.05
52-week range
54.1681.87
Volume
1.29M0.84×
Mkt cap
7.69B
P/E ttm
15.81
Fwd P/E
13.95
EPS ttm
3.58
Div yield
2.54%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−30.87%
AOS market-implied price distribution
AOS Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 30.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 56.60
Expected price
56.39
forward 56.71
68% range
51–61
−9.6% / +8.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 38.93 | −31.2% |
| 16% | 51.15 | −9.6% |
| 25% | 53.17 | −6.1% |
| 50% (median) | 56.39 | −0.4% |
| 75% | 59.52 | +5.2% |
| 84% | 61.32 | +8.3% |
| 95% | 67.80 | +19.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (59.43) | 26% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (62.26) | 13% |
| Down 5% or more (53.77) | 29% |
| Down 10% or more (50.94) | 15% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 15%, 1.0× the 15% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.