ANG.JO
AngloGold Ashanti plcOpenANG.JO discounted cash flow valuation
ANG.JO Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -5.4% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 11.2% in this model.
Model: 11.2% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 8.94% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | ZAR 780.56B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (59% of EV) | ZAR 1.13T |
| Enterprise value | ZAR 1.91T |
| + Cash & investments | ZAR 45.84B |
| − Total debt | −ZAR 29.51B |
| Equity value | ZAR 1.93T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 505.77M |
| Value per share | ZAR 3,811.25 |
| Market cap | ZAR 762.69B |
USD statements converted at 16.48 ZAR · quoted in ZAc, valued in ZAR.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.74 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.94% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 12.00% |
| Tax rate | 25.8% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 3.7% |
| WACC | 8.94% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.94% | 4,796.21 | 5,177.94 | 5,645.53 | 6,231.67 | 6,988.05 |
| 7.94% | 4,004.46 | 4,258.14 | 4,558.35 | 4,919.25 | 5,361.33 |
| 8.94% | 3,427.90 | 3,605.80 | 3,811.25 | 4,051.23 | 4,335.23 |
| 9.94% | 2,989.90 | 3,119.73 | 3,266.96 | 3,435.35 | 3,629.82 |
| 10.94% | 2,646.31 | 2,744.03 | 2,853.28 | 2,976.24 | 3,115.67 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | ZAR 73.68B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 11.2% | ZAR 81.93B | 0.918 | ZAR 75.21B |
| Year 2 | 11.2% | ZAR 91.11B | 0.843 | ZAR 76.77B |
| Year 3 | 11.2% | ZAR 101.31B | 0.773 | ZAR 78.36B |
| Year 4 | 11.2% | ZAR 112.66B | 0.710 | ZAR 79.98B |
| Year 5 | 11.2% | ZAR 125.27B | 0.652 | ZAR 81.64B |
| Year 6 | 9.5% | ZAR 137.12B | 0.598 | ZAR 82.03B |
| Year 7 | 7.7% | ZAR 147.71B | 0.549 | ZAR 81.11B |
| Year 8 | 6.0% | ZAR 156.54B | 0.504 | ZAR 78.91B |
| Year 9 | 4.2% | ZAR 163.18B | 0.463 | ZAR 75.51B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | ZAR 167.26B | 0.425 | ZAR 71.04B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.