Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
50.79
−25.1%
16%
58.11
−14.3%
25%
61.63
−9.1%
50% (median)
67.73
−0.1%
75%
73.65
+8.7%
84%
76.80
+13.3%
95%
84.80
+25.1%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (71.17)
34%
Up 10% or more (74.56)
22%
Down 5% or more (64.39)
35%
Down 10% or more (61.00)
23%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 23%, 1.0× the 24% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.