AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.Pre-market18.92−0.37 −1.92%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 19.20 +1.48%
Open
19.40
Prev close
19.29
Day range
18.9219.47
52-week range
17.7238.11
Volume
1.61M0.79×
Mkt cap
4.63B
P/E ttm
22.80
Fwd P/E
7.17
EPS ttm
0.8300
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 10, 2026
From 52w high
−50.35%
AMTM market-implied price distribution
AMTM Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 40.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 18.92
Expected price
18.95
forward 18.93
68% range
17–21
−12.1% / +11.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 12.45 | −34.2% |
| 16% | 16.62 | −12.1% |
| 25% | 17.39 | −8.1% |
| 50% (median) | 18.76 | −0.9% |
| 75% | 20.23 | +6.9% |
| 84% | 21.18 | +11.9% |
| 95% | 25.60 | +35.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (19.87) | 30% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (20.81) | 19% |
| Down 5% or more (17.97) | 35% |
| Down 10% or more (17.03) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 0.9× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.