AMRC
Ameresco, Inc.Open20.91+0.02 +0.07%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
20.73
Prev close
20.89
Day range
20.5521.00
52-week range
18.3844.59
Volume
33.03K0.05×
Mkt cap
1.11B
P/E ttm
39.44
Fwd P/E
12.71
EPS ttm
0.5300
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 9, 2026
From 52w high
−53.12%
AMRC market-implied price distribution
AMRC Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 88.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 20.91
Expected price
21.25
forward 21.18
68% range
15–27
−27.1% / +27.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 12.14 | −41.9% |
| 16% | 15.25 | −27.1% |
| 25% | 16.96 | −18.9% |
| 50% (median) | 20.47 | −2.1% |
| 75% | 24.41 | +16.8% |
| 84% | 26.68 | +27.6% |
| 95% | 33.52 | +60.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (21.95) | 39% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (23.00) | 33% |
| Down 5% or more (19.86) | 45% |
| Down 10% or more (18.81) | 38% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 38%, 1.0× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.