AMG
Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.Open377.08−4.75 −1.25%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 13:45 ET · 20m delay
Open
385.02
Prev close
381.83
Day range
376.13387.47
52-week range
231.53395.00
Volume
94.52K0.34×
Mkt cap
9.75B
P/E ttm
13.21
Fwd P/E
8.79
EPS ttm
28.54
Div yield
0.01%
Earnings
Jul 30, 2026
From 52w high
−4.54%
AMG market-implied price distribution
AMG Price at Expiry
37 OTM quotes · ATM IV 34.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
58%
spot 377.08
Expected price
386.73
forward 378.84
68% range
346–420
−8.2% / +11.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 311.15 | −17.5% |
| 16% | 346.20 | −8.2% |
| 25% | 359.65 | −4.6% |
| 50% (median) | 384.05 | +1.8% |
| 75% | 407.64 | +8.1% |
| 84% | 420.43 | +11.5% |
| 95% | 462.28 | +22.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (395.93) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (414.78) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (358.22) | 24% |
| Down 10% or more (339.37) | 13% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 13%, 0.7× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.