AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Pre-market594.24−13.86 −2.28%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 587.97 −1.06%
Open
599.86
Prev close
608.10
Day range
586.54601.77
52-week range
188.22658.52
Volume
15.25M0.66×
Mkt cap
970.08B
P/E ttm
148.19
Fwd P/E
37.80
EPS ttm
4.01
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−9.76%
AMD market-implied price distribution
AMD Price at Expiry
119 OTM quotes · ATM IV 52.8%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 594.24
Expected price
596.60
forward 595.25
68% range
507–682
−14.6% / +14.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 449.75 | −24.3% |
| 16% | 507.46 | −14.6% |
| 25% | 534.28 | −10.1% |
| 50% (median) | 590.53 | −0.6% |
| 75% | 650.70 | +9.5% |
| 84% | 682.47 | +14.8% |
| 95% | 759.76 | +27.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (623.95) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (653.66) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (564.53) | 38% |
| Down 10% or more (534.82) | 25% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 0.9× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.