AMBQ
Ambiq Micro, Inc.Open55.66+0.21 +0.38%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
54.05
Prev close
55.45
Day range
53.1256.09
52-week range
22.1291.61
Volume
283.63K0.56×
Mkt cap
1.35B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-256.81
EPS ttm
-0.3800
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 11, 2026
From 52w high
−39.24%
AMBQ market-implied price distribution
AMBQ Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 77.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
44%
spot 55.66
Expected price
54.93
forward 55.17
68% range
40–67
−27.6% / +21.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 21.95 | −60.6% |
| 16% | 40.27 | −27.6% |
| 25% | 45.48 | −18.3% |
| 50% (median) | 53.84 | −3.3% |
| 75% | 62.29 | +11.9% |
| 84% | 67.32 | +21.0% |
| 95% | 88.41 | +58.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (58.44) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (61.23) | 28% |
| Down 5% or more (52.88) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (50.09) | 38% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 38%, 0.9× the 40% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.