ALV
Autoliv, Inc.Pre-market110.45+0.69 +0.63%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 110.55 +0.09%
Open
109.87
Prev close
109.76
Day range
109.34110.75
52-week range
99.16132.17
Volume
748.62K1.09×
Mkt cap
8.09B
P/E ttm
13.10
Fwd P/E
9.49
EPS ttm
8.43
Div yield
3.15%
Earnings
Oct 23, 2026
From 52w high
−16.43%
ALV market-implied price distribution
ALV Price at Expiry
21 OTM quotes · ATM IV 49.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
70%
spot 110.45
Expected price
117.69
forward 117.12
68% range
103–132
−7.0% / +19.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 86.11 | −22.0% |
| 16% | 102.69 | −7.0% |
| 25% | 108.01 | −2.2% |
| 50% (median) | 117.51 | +6.4% |
| 75% | 126.80 | +14.8% |
| 84% | 131.84 | +19.4% |
| 95% | 147.08 | +33.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (115.97) | 55% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (121.50) | 38% |
| Down 5% or more (104.93) | 19% |
| Down 10% or more (99.41) | 12% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 12%, 0.7× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.