ALSYDB.CO
AL Sydbank A/SOpenALSYDB.CO discounted cash flow valuation
AL Sydbank A/S is a banks - regional company. Its cash flows include lending and deposits, so free cash flow isn't owner earnings and this model can mislead. Compare it with peers on book value and earnings instead.
ALSYDB.CO Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -49.7% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 14.8% in this model.
Model: 14.8% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 6.23% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | DKK 238.47B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (75% of EV) | DKK 711.52B |
| Enterprise value | DKK 949.99B |
| + Cash & investments | DKK 83.24B |
| − Total debt | −DKK 40.33B |
| Equity value | DKK 992.90B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 84.87M |
| Value per share | DKK 11,699.14 |
| Market cap | DKK 60.94B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 23.5% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 39.8% |
| WACC | 6.23% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.23% | 16,958.40 | 20,275.67 | 25,509.89 | 34,998.79 | 57,484.86 |
| 5.23% | 12,323.52 | 13,905.76 | 16,067.25 | 19,197.62 | 24,136.92 |
| 6.23% | 9,658.15 | 10,558.12 | 11,699.14 | 13,193.15 | 15,234.12 |
| 7.23% | 7,930.59 | 8,498.55 | 9,186.42 | 10,036.72 | 11,114.77 |
| 8.23% | 6,722.36 | 7,106.34 | 7,557.21 | 8,094.14 | 8,744.43 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | DKK 16.66B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 14.8% | DKK 19.12B | 0.941 | DKK 18.00B |
| Year 2 | 14.8% | DKK 21.95B | 0.886 | DKK 19.46B |
| Year 3 | 14.8% | DKK 25.20B | 0.834 | DKK 21.02B |
| Year 4 | 14.8% | DKK 28.93B | 0.785 | DKK 22.72B |
| Year 5 | 14.8% | DKK 33.22B | 0.739 | DKK 24.55B |
| Year 6 | 12.3% | DKK 37.32B | 0.696 | DKK 25.97B |
| Year 7 | 9.9% | DKK 41.00B | 0.655 | DKK 26.86B |
| Year 8 | 7.4% | DKK 44.04B | 0.617 | DKK 27.16B |
| Year 9 | 5.0% | DKK 46.23B | 0.580 | DKK 26.83B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | DKK 47.39B | 0.546 | DKK 25.89B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.