ALPA4.SA
ALPARGATAS PN N1ClosedALPA4.SA discounted cash flow valuation
ALPA4.SA Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 1.7% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 13.3% in this model.
Model: 13.3% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.77% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | BRL 4.37B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (66% of EV) | BRL 8.44B |
| Enterprise value | BRL 12.81B |
| + Cash & investments | BRL 717.70M |
| − Total debt | −BRL 1.40B |
| Equity value | BRL 12.13B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 339.82M |
| Value per share | BRL 35.68 |
| Market cap | BRL 11.79B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.56 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.02% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 8.61% |
| Tax rate | 34.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 10.6% |
| WACC | 7.77% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.77% | 47.78 | 53.34 | 60.59 | 70.45 | 84.67 |
| 6.77% | 37.69 | 41.05 | 45.20 | 50.45 | 57.30 |
| 7.77% | 30.85 | 33.06 | 35.68 | 38.86 | 42.78 |
| 8.77% | 25.91 | 27.45 | 29.23 | 31.32 | 33.80 |
| 9.77% | 22.18 | 23.30 | 24.57 | 26.02 | 27.71 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | BRL 354.05M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 13.3% | BRL 401.14M | 0.928 | BRL 372.22M |
| Year 2 | 13.3% | BRL 454.49M | 0.861 | BRL 391.32M |
| Year 3 | 13.3% | BRL 514.94M | 0.799 | BRL 411.40M |
| Year 4 | 13.3% | BRL 583.43M | 0.741 | BRL 432.51M |
| Year 5 | 13.3% | BRL 661.02M | 0.688 | BRL 454.70M |
| Year 6 | 11.1% | BRL 734.66M | 0.638 | BRL 468.92M |
| Year 7 | 9.0% | BRL 800.63M | 0.592 | BRL 474.19M |
| Year 8 | 6.8% | BRL 855.24M | 0.550 | BRL 470.01M |
| Year 9 | 4.7% | BRL 895.09M | 0.510 | BRL 456.44M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | BRL 917.47M | 0.473 | BRL 434.12M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.