ALMU
Aeluma, Inc.Open9.67−0.75 −7.20%USD
NasdaqCM · as of Oct 13, 15:08 ET · 15m delay
Open
10.04
Prev close
10.42
Day range
9.5510.15
52-week range
9.5531.79
Volume
775.37K1.42×
Mkt cap
186.78M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-16.67
EPS ttm
-0.5200
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Sep 16, 2026
From 52w high
−69.58%
ALMU market-implied price distribution
ALMU Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 93.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 9.67
Expected price
9.80
forward 9.81
68% range
7–13
−30.7% / +30.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 4.53 | −53.2% |
| 16% | 6.70 | −30.7% |
| 25% | 7.59 | −21.5% |
| 50% (median) | 9.39 | −2.9% |
| 75% | 11.43 | +18.2% |
| 84% | 12.65 | +30.8% |
| 95% | 16.68 | +72.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (10.15) | 39% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (10.64) | 33% |
| Down 5% or more (9.19) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (8.70) | 40% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 40%, 1.0× the 40% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.