ALM
Almonty Industries Inc.Open11.06−0.02 −0.23%USD
NasdaqCM · as of Oct 13, 14:51 ET · 15m delay
Open
11.16
Prev close
11.08
Day range
10.8911.62
52-week range
5.4424.41
Volume
4.17M0.64×
Mkt cap
3.19B
P/E ttm
61.42
Fwd P/E
9.34
EPS ttm
0.1800
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
—
From 52w high
−54.71%
ALM market-implied price distribution
ALM Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 87.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 11.06
Expected price
11.01
forward 11.12
68% range
8–14
−28.5% / +25.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 4.54 | −58.9% |
| 16% | 7.90 | −28.5% |
| 25% | 8.95 | −19.0% |
| 50% (median) | 10.82 | −2.1% |
| 75% | 12.78 | +15.6% |
| 84% | 13.92 | +25.9% |
| 95% | 17.92 | +62.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (11.61) | 39% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (12.16) | 32% |
| Down 5% or more (10.50) | 45% |
| Down 10% or more (9.95) | 37% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 37%, 0.9× the 40% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.