ALLY
Ally Financial Inc.Pre-market37.91+0.32 +0.85%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 37.96 +0.13%
Open
37.24
Prev close
37.59
Day range
37.2938.10
52-week range
35.9247.29
Volume
4.61M1.35×
Mkt cap
11.53B
P/E ttm
8.92
Fwd P/E
6.17
EPS ttm
4.25
Div yield
3.17%
Earnings
Oct 20, 2026
From 52w high
−19.84%
ALLY market-implied price distribution
ALLY Price at Expiry
26 OTM quotes · ATM IV 38.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 37.91
Expected price
37.82
forward 37.68
68% range
34–42
−10.8% / +9.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 30.42 | −19.8% |
| 16% | 33.83 | −10.8% |
| 25% | 35.15 | −7.3% |
| 50% (median) | 37.68 | −0.6% |
| 75% | 40.22 | +6.1% |
| 84% | 41.57 | +9.7% |
| 95% | 45.12 | +19.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (39.81) | 28% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (41.70) | 15% |
| Down 5% or more (36.01) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (34.12) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 0.8× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.