AIP
Arteris, Inc.Open21.23−0.23 −1.07%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 10:16 ET · 15m delay
Open
21.00
Prev close
21.46
Day range
20.6921.27
52-week range
12.0650.26
Volume
45.89K0.07×
Mkt cap
1.04B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
170.77
EPS ttm
-0.8700
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−57.77%
AIP market-implied price distribution
AIP Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 82.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 21.23
Expected price
20.99
forward 21.32
68% range
14–26
−32.1% / +23.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 9.81 | −53.8% |
| 16% | 14.42 | −32.1% |
| 25% | 17.13 | −19.3% |
| 50% (median) | 20.92 | −1.4% |
| 75% | 24.38 | +14.9% |
| 84% | 26.30 | +23.9% |
| 95% | 32.99 | +55.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (22.29) | 39% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (23.35) | 32% |
| Down 5% or more (20.16) | 44% |
| Down 10% or more (19.10) | 36% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 36%, 0.9× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.