AI
C3.ai, Inc.After hours12.01+0.40 +3.45%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 11.90 −0.92%
Open
11.63
Prev close
11.61
Day range
11.5212.02
52-week range
7.6819.80
Volume
7.12M1.41×
Mkt cap
1.93B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-25.54
EPS ttm
-3.08
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Sep 2, 2026
From 52w high
−39.34%
AI market-implied price distribution
AI Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 53.7%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 12.01
Expected price
12.02
forward 12.05
68% range
10–14
−16.0% / +14.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.25 | −31.3% |
| 16% | 10.09 | −16.0% |
| 25% | 10.80 | −10.1% |
| 50% (median) | 11.93 | −0.6% |
| 75% | 13.07 | +8.8% |
| 84% | 13.75 | +14.5% |
| 95% | 16.45 | +36.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (12.61) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (13.21) | 23% |
| Down 5% or more (11.41) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (10.81) | 25% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 0.9× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.