AGL.JO
Anglo American plcOpenAGL.JO discounted cash flow valuation
AGL.JO Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 13.6% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 25.0% in this model.
Model: 25.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 8.61% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | ZAR 687.14B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (66% of EV) | ZAR 1.35T |
| Enterprise value | ZAR 2.03T |
| + Cash & investments | ZAR 146.09B |
| − Total debt | −ZAR 284.44B |
| Equity value | ZAR 1.89T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 1.07B |
| Value per share | ZAR 1,767.87 |
| Market cap | ZAR 963.82B |
USD statements converted at 16.48 ZAR · quoted in ZAc, valued in ZAR.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.95 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 9.99% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 25.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 22.8% |
| WACC | 8.61% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.61% | 2,326.10 | 2,554.54 | 2,838.51 | 3,201.08 | 3,680.16 |
| 7.61% | 1,871.08 | 2,019.41 | 2,196.74 | 2,412.49 | 2,680.68 |
| 8.61% | 1,546.58 | 1,648.87 | 1,767.87 | 1,908.05 | 2,075.62 |
| 9.61% | 1,304.18 | 1,377.87 | 1,461.91 | 1,558.63 | 1,671.15 |
| 10.61% | 1,116.71 | 1,171.61 | 1,233.25 | 1,302.97 | 1,382.47 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2025) | — | ZAR 35.12B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.0% | ZAR 43.90B | 0.921 | ZAR 40.42B |
| Year 2 | 25.0% | ZAR 54.87B | 0.848 | ZAR 46.51B |
| Year 3 | 25.0% | ZAR 68.59B | 0.781 | ZAR 53.53B |
| Year 4 | 25.0% | ZAR 85.73B | 0.719 | ZAR 61.61B |
| Year 5 | 25.0% | ZAR 107.17B | 0.662 | ZAR 70.91B |
| Year 6 | 20.5% | ZAR 129.14B | 0.609 | ZAR 78.67B |
| Year 7 | 16.0% | ZAR 149.80B | 0.561 | ZAR 84.03B |
| Year 8 | 11.5% | ZAR 167.03B | 0.516 | ZAR 86.26B |
| Year 9 | 7.0% | ZAR 178.72B | 0.476 | ZAR 84.98B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | ZAR 183.18B | 0.438 | ZAR 80.20B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.