AFRM
Affirm Holdings, Inc.Open78.43−0.20 −0.25%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 15m delay
Open
78.54
Prev close
78.63
Day range
77.5279.43
52-week range
42.1090.44
Volume
372.73K0.09×
Mkt cap
26.46B
P/E ttm
14.18
Fwd P/E
15.82
EPS ttm
5.53
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−13.28%
AFRM market-implied price distribution
AFRM Price at Expiry
32 OTM quotes · ATM IV 65.0%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 78.50
Expected price
79.10
forward 79.13
68% range
64–94
−17.9% / +19.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 55.70 | −29.0% |
| 16% | 64.48 | −17.9% |
| 25% | 68.75 | −12.4% |
| 50% (median) | 78.04 | −0.6% |
| 75% | 88.21 | +12.4% |
| 84% | 93.57 | +19.2% |
| 95% | 106.54 | +35.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (82.43) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (86.35) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (74.58) | 40% |
| Down 10% or more (70.65) | 30% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 30%, 1.0× the 31% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.