ACIC
American Coastal Insurance CorpClosed10.63+0.50 +4.94%USD
NasdaqCM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 10.63 0.00%
Open
10.24
Prev close
10.13
Day range
10.2310.83
52-week range
9.0113.06
Volume
718.02K2.65×
Mkt cap
502.47M
P/E ttm
5.29
Fwd P/E
8.30
EPS ttm
2.01
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−18.61%
ACIC market-implied price distribution
ACIC Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 64.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
32%
spot 10.63
Expected price
10.62
forward 10.27
68% range
8–12
−20.4% / +13.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 7.49 | −29.5% |
| 16% | 8.46 | −20.4% |
| 25% | 8.97 | −15.7% |
| 50% (median) | 9.80 | −7.8% |
| 75% | 11.10 | +4.4% |
| 84% | 12.04 | +13.3% |
| 95% | 18.68 | +75.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (11.16) | 24% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (11.69) | 19% |
| Down 5% or more (10.10) | 57% |
| Down 10% or more (9.57) | 44% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 44%, 1.1× the 41% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.