ACA
Arcosa, Inc.Open147.31+0.04 +0.03%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:10 ET · 20m delay
Open
147.30
Prev close
147.27
Day range
147.17147.37
52-week range
89.13147.40
Volume
25.55K0.04×
Mkt cap
7.23B
P/E ttm
36.37
Fwd P/E
28.77
EPS ttm
4.05
Div yield
0.14%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−0.06%
ACA market-implied price distribution
ACA Price at Expiry
14 OTM quotes · ATM IV 5.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 147.31
Expected price
151.07
forward 147.44
68% range
146–149
−0.8% / +1.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 144.89 | −1.6% |
| 16% | 146.14 | −0.8% |
| 25% | 146.56 | −0.5% |
| 50% (median) | 147.36 | +0.0% |
| 75% | 148.32 | +0.7% |
| 84% | 149.06 | +1.2% |
| 95% | 195.65 | +32.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (154.67) | 7.3% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (162.04) | 6.9% |
| Down 5% or more (139.94) | 0.5% |
| Down 10% or more (132.58) | 0.1% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 0.1%, 19470884.5× the 0.0% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.