ABG
Asbury Automotive Group IncOpen164.39+0.46 +0.28%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
164.47
Prev close
163.93
Day range
162.03165.24
52-week range
162.03258.75
Volume
126.11K0.50×
Mkt cap
2.95B
P/E ttm
6.12
Fwd P/E
5.58
EPS ttm
26.86
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 27, 2026
From 52w high
−36.47%
ABG market-implied price distribution
ABG Price at Expiry
13 OTM quotes · ATM IV 48.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 164.39
Expected price
165.13
forward 164.49
68% range
137–188
−16.4% / +14.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 119.24 | −27.5% |
| 16% | 137.36 | −16.4% |
| 25% | 147.49 | −10.3% |
| 50% (median) | 162.91 | −0.9% |
| 75% | 178.21 | +8.4% |
| 84% | 187.65 | +14.1% |
| 95% | 227.25 | +38.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (172.61) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (180.83) | 22% |
| Down 5% or more (156.17) | 38% |
| Down 10% or more (147.95) | 26% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 26%, 0.9× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.