ABCL
AbCellera Biologics Inc.After hours12.61−0.03 −0.20%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 12.50 −0.87%
Open
12.47
Prev close
12.64
Day range
12.2012.72
52-week range
2.7515.02
Volume
3.25M0.49×
Mkt cap
4.09B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-16.54
EPS ttm
-0.5400
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 9, 2026
From 52w high
−16.02%
ABCL market-implied price distribution
ABCL Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 82.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 12.61
Expected price
12.69
forward 12.64
68% range
9–16
−25.6% / +24.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 7.02 | −44.3% |
| 16% | 9.38 | −25.6% |
| 25% | 10.30 | −18.3% |
| 50% (median) | 12.21 | −3.2% |
| 75% | 14.41 | +14.3% |
| 84% | 15.74 | +24.8% |
| 95% | 20.30 | +61.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (13.24) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (13.87) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (11.98) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (11.35) | 38% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 38%, 1.0× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.