AA
Alcoa CorporationOpen41.56−0.11 −0.26%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
41.43
Prev close
41.67
Day range
40.7441.77
52-week range
35.1284.38
Volume
3.08M0.67×
Mkt cap
10.97B
P/E ttm
8.64
Fwd P/E
7.33
EPS ttm
4.81
Div yield
0.96%
Earnings
Oct 15, 2026
From 52w high
−50.75%
AA market-implied price distribution
AA Price at Expiry
20 OTM quotes · ATM IV 50.2%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 41.56
Expected price
41.42
forward 41.35
68% range
36–47
−14.3% / +13.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 31.58 | −24.0% |
| 16% | 35.62 | −14.3% |
| 25% | 37.32 | −10.2% |
| 50% (median) | 40.87 | −1.7% |
| 75% | 44.79 | +7.8% |
| 84% | 46.99 | +13.1% |
| 95% | 53.14 | +27.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (43.64) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (45.72) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (39.48) | 40% |
| Down 10% or more (37.40) | 26% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 26%, 0.9× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.