9868.HK
XPENG-WOpen9868.HK discounted cash flow valuation
9868.HK Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -6.4% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 25.0% in this model.
Model: 25.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 8.55% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | HKD 113.05B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (66% of EV) | HKD 224.03B |
| Enterprise value | HKD 337.07B |
| + Cash & investments | HKD 32.87B |
| − Total debt | −HKD 31.49B |
| Equity value | HKD 338.46B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 1.57B |
| Value per share | HKD 215.96 |
| Market cap | HKD 72.73B |
CNY statements converted at 1.172 HKD.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 1.07 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 10.56% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 25.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 30.2% |
| WACC | 8.55% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.55% | 279.82 | 306.16 | 339.01 | 381.09 | 436.97 |
| 7.55% | 227.67 | 244.71 | 265.11 | 289.99 | 321.00 |
| 8.55% | 190.61 | 202.32 | 215.96 | 232.05 | 251.33 |
| 9.55% | 162.99 | 171.40 | 181.01 | 192.08 | 204.98 |
| 10.55% | 141.66 | 147.92 | 154.95 | 162.92 | 172.01 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2025) | — | HKD 5.76B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.0% | HKD 7.20B | 0.921 | HKD 6.63B |
| Year 2 | 25.0% | HKD 9.00B | 0.849 | HKD 7.64B |
| Year 3 | 25.0% | HKD 11.25B | 0.782 | HKD 8.79B |
| Year 4 | 25.0% | HKD 14.06B | 0.720 | HKD 10.12B |
| Year 5 | 25.0% | HKD 17.57B | 0.664 | HKD 11.66B |
| Year 6 | 20.5% | HKD 21.17B | 0.611 | HKD 12.94B |
| Year 7 | 16.0% | HKD 24.56B | 0.563 | HKD 13.83B |
| Year 8 | 11.5% | HKD 27.39B | 0.519 | HKD 14.21B |
| Year 9 | 7.0% | HKD 29.30B | 0.478 | HKD 14.00B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | HKD 30.04B | 0.440 | HKD 13.22B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.