601579.SS
KUAIJISHAN SHAOXING RICE WINE COpen601579.SS discounted cash flow valuation
601579.SS Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 49.4% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 10.8% in this model.
Model: 10.8% from analyst next-year revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 8.13% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CNY 656.77M |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (65% of EV) | CNY 1.25B |
| Enterprise value | CNY 1.90B |
| + Cash & investments | CNY 872.70M |
| − Total debt | −CNY 172.56M |
| Equity value | CNY 2.60B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 479.46M |
| Value per share | CNY 5.43 |
| Market cap | CNY 14.71B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (adjusted toward 1) | 0.67 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.50% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.18% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.19% |
| Tax rate | 23.8% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 1.2% |
| WACC | 8.13% |
Beta is Yahoo's, held between 0.5 and 2.5, then moved a third of the way toward 1. Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%. WACC is at least the risk-free rate plus 2%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.13% | 6.71 | 7.31 | 8.11 | 9.21 | 10.82 |
| 7.13% | 5.64 | 6.00 | 6.44 | 7.01 | 7.76 |
| 8.13% | 4.91 | 5.15 | 5.43 | 5.77 | 6.19 |
| 9.13% | 4.39 | 4.56 | 4.74 | 4.97 | 5.23 |
| 10.13% | 4.01 | 4.12 | 4.26 | 4.41 | 4.59 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CNY 60.35M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 10.8% | CNY 66.87M | 0.925 | CNY 61.84M |
| Year 2 | 10.8% | CNY 74.09M | 0.855 | CNY 63.37M |
| Year 3 | 10.8% | CNY 82.10M | 0.791 | CNY 64.94M |
| Year 4 | 10.8% | CNY 90.96M | 0.732 | CNY 66.54M |
| Year 5 | 10.8% | CNY 100.79M | 0.677 | CNY 68.18M |
| Year 6 | 9.2% | CNY 110.10M | 0.626 | CNY 68.88M |
| Year 7 | 7.7% | CNY 118.55M | 0.579 | CNY 68.59M |
| Year 8 | 6.1% | CNY 125.81M | 0.535 | CNY 67.32M |
| Year 9 | 4.6% | CNY 131.55M | 0.495 | CNY 65.10M |
| Year 10 | 3.0% | CNY 135.49M | 0.458 | CNY 62.01M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else next year's revenue growth (steadier than one year's EPS), else next year's EPS growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −2% and 25%. Terminal growth defaults to 3%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.