600941.SS
CHINA MOBILE LTDOpen600941.SS discounted cash flow valuation
600941.SS Fair Value
Reverse DCF: no growth rate between −50% and +100% a year matches today's price.
Model: 2.2% from analyst next-year revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 8.00% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CNY 570.39B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (62% of EV) | CNY 922.44B |
| Enterprise value | CNY 1.49T |
| + Cash & investments | CNY 322.72B |
| − Total debt | −CNY 98.83B |
| Equity value | CNY 1.72T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 902.77M |
| Value per share | CNY 1,901.63 |
| Market cap | CNY 2.18T |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (adjusted toward 1) | 0.67 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.50% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.18% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.19% |
| Tax rate | 21.8% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 4.3% |
| WACC | 8.00% |
Beta is Yahoo's, held between 0.5 and 2.5, then moved a third of the way toward 1. Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%. WACC is at least the risk-free rate plus 2%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.00% | 2,420.18 | 2,667.23 | 2,996.57 | 3,457.56 | 4,148.96 |
| 7.00% | 1,985.17 | 2,130.58 | 2,312.30 | 2,545.89 | 2,857.28 |
| 8.00% | 1,695.19 | 1,789.04 | 1,901.63 | 2,039.20 | 2,211.11 |
| 9.00% | 1,488.08 | 1,552.56 | 1,627.75 | 1,716.59 | 1,823.17 |
| 10.00% | 1,332.77 | 1,379.11 | 1,432.05 | 1,493.12 | 1,564.34 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2025) | — | CNY 75.97B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 2.2% | CNY 77.64B | 0.926 | CNY 71.89B |
| Year 2 | 2.2% | CNY 79.35B | 0.857 | CNY 68.03B |
| Year 3 | 2.2% | CNY 81.09B | 0.794 | CNY 64.37B |
| Year 4 | 2.2% | CNY 82.88B | 0.735 | CNY 60.92B |
| Year 5 | 2.2% | CNY 84.70B | 0.681 | CNY 57.65B |
| Year 6 | 2.4% | CNY 86.70B | 0.630 | CNY 54.64B |
| Year 7 | 2.5% | CNY 88.88B | 0.583 | CNY 51.86B |
| Year 8 | 2.7% | CNY 91.27B | 0.540 | CNY 49.31B |
| Year 9 | 2.8% | CNY 93.86B | 0.500 | CNY 46.95B |
| Year 10 | 3.0% | CNY 96.67B | 0.463 | CNY 44.78B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else next year's revenue growth (steadier than one year's EPS), else next year's EPS growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −2% and 25%. Terminal growth defaults to 3%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.