3309.HK
C-MER MEDICALClosed3309.HK discounted cash flow valuation
3309.HK Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -25.9% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 4.0% in this model.
Model: 4.0% from 3-yr revenue CAGR. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 6.80% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | HKD 1.74B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (67% of EV) | HKD 3.54B |
| Enterprise value | HKD 5.28B |
| + Cash & investments | HKD 563.36M |
| − Total debt | −HKD 433.61M |
| Equity value | HKD 5.41B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 1.18B |
| Value per share | HKD 4.57 |
| Market cap | HKD 947.62M |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.30% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.56 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.08% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.61% |
| Tax rate | 28.5% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 31.4% |
| WACC | 6.80% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.80% | 6.25 | 7.16 | 8.48 | 10.53 | 14.16 |
| 5.80% | 4.80 | 5.29 | 5.93 | 6.80 | 8.04 |
| 6.80% | 3.90 | 4.20 | 4.57 | 5.03 | 5.63 |
| 7.80% | 3.29 | 3.48 | 3.72 | 4.00 | 4.35 |
| 8.80% | 2.84 | 2.98 | 3.14 | 3.32 | 3.54 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2025) | — | HKD 202.34M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.0% | HKD 210.44M | 0.936 | HKD 197.04M |
| Year 2 | 4.0% | HKD 218.85M | 0.877 | HKD 191.87M |
| Year 3 | 4.0% | HKD 227.61M | 0.821 | HKD 186.84M |
| Year 4 | 4.0% | HKD 236.71M | 0.769 | HKD 181.94M |
| Year 5 | 4.0% | HKD 246.18M | 0.720 | HKD 177.17M |
| Year 6 | 3.7% | HKD 255.29M | 0.674 | HKD 172.03M |
| Year 7 | 3.4% | HKD 263.97M | 0.631 | HKD 166.55M |
| Year 8 | 3.1% | HKD 272.15M | 0.591 | HKD 160.78M |
| Year 9 | 2.8% | HKD 279.77M | 0.553 | HKD 154.76M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | HKD 286.77M | 0.518 | HKD 148.53M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.