2412.TW
CHUNGHWA TELECOMClosed2412.TW discounted cash flow valuation
2412.TW Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 2.8% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 3.4% in this model.
Model: 3.4% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.60% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | TWD 438.43B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (62% of EV) | TWD 716.65B |
| Enterprise value | TWD 1.16T |
| + Cash & investments | TWD 78.02B |
| − Total debt | −TWD 38.20B |
| Equity value | TWD 1.19T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 7.76B |
| Value per share | TWD 154.03 |
| Market cap | TWD 1.15T |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 19.4% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 3.2% |
| WACC | 7.60% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.60% | 200.40 | 222.12 | 250.83 | 290.57 | 349.24 |
| 6.60% | 161.64 | 174.55 | 190.62 | 211.14 | 238.28 |
| 7.60% | 135.60 | 143.99 | 154.03 | 166.25 | 181.44 |
| 8.60% | 116.91 | 122.71 | 129.45 | 137.40 | 146.90 |
| 9.60% | 102.86 | 107.04 | 111.80 | 117.29 | 123.67 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | TWD 54.51B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.4% | TWD 56.36B | 0.929 | TWD 52.38B |
| Year 2 | 3.4% | TWD 58.28B | 0.864 | TWD 50.33B |
| Year 3 | 3.4% | TWD 60.26B | 0.803 | TWD 48.37B |
| Year 4 | 3.4% | TWD 62.31B | 0.746 | TWD 46.48B |
| Year 5 | 3.4% | TWD 64.42B | 0.693 | TWD 44.67B |
| Year 6 | 3.2% | TWD 66.50B | 0.644 | TWD 42.85B |
| Year 7 | 3.0% | TWD 68.52B | 0.599 | TWD 41.03B |
| Year 8 | 2.9% | TWD 70.48B | 0.557 | TWD 39.23B |
| Year 9 | 2.7% | TWD 72.37B | 0.517 | TWD 37.43B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | TWD 74.18B | 0.481 | TWD 35.66B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.